Tropical Storm Erika is poorly organized this morning, and meteorologists are not even sure where the center of circulation is.  But some of the models show it making a bee-line for Florida and the Southeast coast.  On the latest public forecast map, Erika could be affecting south Florida by Sunday.  Some of the models show it deteriorating, while at least one shows it developing a strong storm right off the east coast of Florida and moving north.  In a poorly developed system like that, you can expect to see significant changes in predictions for how the storm will develop.  But if you are in Florida, southern and coastal Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, you are going to want to get your hurricane kit ready and keep watching the forecasts for the latest update on the storm.  It could be affecting the Southeast by early next week.

erika cone 8-25-2015

Here’s a blog post this morning from Bryan Norcross in Miami on getting ready:

Bryan Norcross: Welcome to Hurricane Season

So it’s time to wake up from your hurricane slumber. Tropical Storm Erika’s cone is aimed in the direction of Florida. There are a number of reasonable scenarios on how this is going to come out: from nothing at all, to beneficial rain, to a significant storm making landfall, to a big storm just missing the east coast. On the current timetable, the weather would start deteriorating in South Florida on Sunday, if the system comes that way. It would take longer to get farther north because it would likely be moving fairly slowly at that time.

All that’s required now is to be sure your hurricane supplies and plans are in place. Know what you’d do if a storm were to come.

Right now, Erika is poorly organized. It’s not even clear where the center is. That means that the models are only guessing. If you don’t know what the weather is now, you can’t have confidence in the forecast for the future. NOAA is sending their jet to measure the atmosphere around Erika, and Hurricane Hunters will fly into the storm this afternoon. After that we’ll have a better idea what’s going on. In any case, however, the forecast will be fuzzy for a while. Hurricane forecast models don’t do well with disorganized systems.

The National Hurricane Center’s track cone and forecast intensity is a compromise between the models that say the storm is going to move north of the mountainous Caribbean Islands and get quite strong over the Bahamas or near Florida. Other models say that the atmospheric conditions are not favorable for a hurricane-strength storm, and so a weaker storm on a more southern track could be disrupted the mountains. The result would be something between a tropical storm and a somewhat gusty rainstorm by the time it got to Florida.

If you’re new to this hurricane business, welcome to hurricane season. The most important things to know are: 1) Things can change fast so you have to keep up with the latest information – the forecast can suddenly get more ominous or the threat can suddenly diminish, and 2) It’s a lot easier to prepare and make a plan ahead of time than it is when everybody else is suddenly in a frenzy.